VOL XVII Number 5 December, 1998
ELECTRONIC DISTRIBUTION
Upcoming in 1999: We will begin offering distribution of the JDM
newsletter in electronic form. Initially, as we check for bugs, we will
continue to mail the hard copy of the newsletter to all members while
attempting to distribute the electronic version to all known members' e-
mail addresses. As we proceed, we will be offering the newsletter in
electronic-only format to those who prefer this means of distribution. This
will lower the costs of distribution for the newsletter, and help to keep the
dues low. Please check your e-mail address in the JDM Directory
distributed last summer. If your e-mail address is incorrect or missing,
please let us know. You can use the form on p. 19 of this issue to inform us
of any changes.
From the Editor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
From the President. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1998 Presidential Address . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Dissertation Titles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Minutes: 1998 Executive Board Meeting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Minutes: 1998 Business Meeting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Student Paper Competition Notice. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Position Announcements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
New Book. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Meetings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Dues and Journal Order Form . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
SUBMISSION DEADLINE FOR THE NEXT J/DM NEWSLETTER: March 12, 1999
1999 EXECUTIVE BOARD
Irwin P. Levin, President, <irwin-levin@uiowa.edu>
Thomas Wallsten, President-Elect, <tom.wallsten@unc.edu>
Elke Weber, Past President, <weber.211@osu.edu>
George Loewenstein, 1997-1999, <gl20+@andrew.cmu.edu>
Gretchen Chapman, 1998-2000, <gbc@rci.rutgers.edu>
Joshua Klayman, 1999-2001, <joshk@uchicago.edu>
Colleen Moore, Secretary/Treasurer, <cfmoore@facstaff.wisc.edu>
Shawn P. Curley, Newsletter Editor, <scurley@csom.umn.edu>
Editor:
Shawn P. Curley
Department of Info. & Decision Sciences
University of Minnesota
321 19th Avenue S.
Minneapolis, MN 55455
(612) 624-6546
FAX: (612) 626-1316
scurley@csom.umn.edu
Dues, Addresses & Corrections:
Colleen F. Moore/JDM
Psychology Department
University of Wisconsin
1202 W. Johnson St.
Madison, WI 53706
(608) 263-4868
cfmoore@facstaff.wisc.edu
The J/DM Newsletter welcomes submissions from individuals and groups. However, we do not publish substantive papers. Book reviews will be published. If you are interested in reviewing books and related materials, please write to the editor.
There are few ground rules for submissions. The best way to send your contribution is via EMAIL or a 3.5" diskette. Send an IBM-compatible text file or word-processed document up to versions WordPerfect 8 or Word 97. If you must send hard-copy (e.g., if you are using special graphics or do not have computer access), please submit camera-ready copy. This means that the copy should be typed single-spaced on white 8 1/2 by 11 paper. If possible, use a carbon or film ribbon. Please mail flat do not fold.
Subscriptions: Subscriptions are available on a calendar year basis only. Requests for information concerning membership in the Society for Judgment and Decision Making should be sent to Colleen Moore.
Advertising Rates: Advertising can be submitted to the editor. Inclusion of the ad and the space given to the ad is at the editor's discretion. The current charge is $100 per page to cover production and mailing costs. Contact Shawn Curley for details. Alternatively, you can use--
Mailing Labels: Some readers may wish to send reprint lists or other material to people listed in the directory. The current charge is $125 for a set of labels. Contact Colleen Moore for details. A diskette of the database is available for one-time use. The charge is $50 for commercial use, $25 for nonprofit use
Address corrections: Please check your mailing label carefully. Because the J/DM Newsletter is usually sent by bulk mail, copies with incorrect addresses or which are otherwise undeliverable are neither forwarded nor returned. Therefore, we have no way of knowing if copies are delivered. Address changes or corrections should be sent to Colleen Moore.
Hi everyone. Just a brief note to say how honored I am to become president of J/DM, especially given the distinguished list of past presidents. Elke, along with Colleen, Shawn, and others, have kept the society in good shape. I see no crises on the horizon and I'll try my best not to create one.
We just completed our annual conference which, by most accounts, was highly successful. In particular, Elke's presidential address will be a hard act to follow. Nevertheless, attendance was down a bit, bringing up the familiar issue of the wisdom of our present arrangement with the Psychonomic Society. Perhaps it's just that Dallas wasn't as much of an attraction as, say, L.A. will be. But we certainly will revisit this issue and the related issue of the optimal format for our meetings. Your input is quite welcome.
Happy holidays and Happy New Year. I urge you all to look for "new blood" for our Society during the coming year.
Irwin Levin
From Shakespeare to Spielberg (with apologies to Paul Slovic):
Some reflections on modes of decision making
Elke U. Weber, Outgoing President
Rumor has it that it is conventional for the outgoing president to write a short note summarizing his or her presidential address in the first newsletter after the annual meeting. As those of you who subscribe to the J/DM email list already know, our webmasters (the faithful Alans) were kind enough to post the PowerPoint text-slides of my talk (together with a list of references) on the J/DM home page: <http://www.jdm.org>. I will gladly send anybody interested a copy of the paper that I am planning to write on the topic in the near future. Preprint requests (please indicate whether a WordPerfect email attachment will suffice or whether you would like a hard copy) should be sent to <weber.211@osu.edu>. In the meantime, here is a thumbnail sketch of what I said:
"What a piece of work is man.
How noble in reason.
How infinite in faculty.
In apprehension, how like a god!"
Hamlet, II, ii
"I've got a bad feeling about this!"
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Recent years have seen documentation of an ever-growing list of ways in which people go about making decisions. These modes of decision making span the range from cost benefit based decision making (alluded to by Shakespeare in the Hamlet quote) to different category- or rule-based methods, role-based decision making, reason-based choice, story-based decision making, or affect-based choice (as illustrated by the Spielberg quote). Different ways/modes of making a decision frequently lead to the selection of different choice alternatives. This emerging list of qualitatively different decision modes thus calls for a meta-decision framework that predicts (implicit) decision mode selection. Such a framework should be a conceptual extension of Payne, Bettman, and Johnson's (1998, 1993) Adaptive-Decision-Maker framework in two ways: It needs to consider a broader range of decision modes and a broader range of selection criteria (i.e., more than effort and accuracy).
If decision making is conceptualized as a constrained optimization problem, then behavioral decision research has contributed to providing better descriptions/predictions of human decision making in two ways. The first and extremely important contribution has been the identification of human cognitive and emotional limitations that act as constraints, and the effects of such constraints on judgment and decision processes. This direction of research resulted in the fruitful investigation of heuristic processing shortcuts. The other contribution (which has been less investigated) is a more accurate specification of the objective function that people may try to maximize by their decisions. Clearly, people care about much more than material well-being: post-decisional comparisons, fairness, justifiability, confidence, and self-esteem, to name just a few additional concerns.
A predictive framework for (implicit) decision mode selection needs to include both characteristics of the decision maker (basic human motivation, cultural differences) and of the decision situation as predictor variables. Characteristics of the decision situation would include the content of the decision. The content-specific nature of decision outcomes (e.g., differences in risk attitude in the financial vs. social domain) may be, at least partially, mediated by domain differences in preferred decision mode, in the following way. Content domains differentially prime different facets of human needs and motivation (e.g., material well-being in financial decisions, affiliation in social decisions). Different needs may best be served by different decision modes (e.g., affiliation by role-based decision making, justifiability by reason-based decision making). Use of a different decision mode can lead to a different selection of "best" decision alternative.
Identification of different decision making modes also raises the possibility that people may make decisions using more than one mode at a time, which raises a list of issues that have been unexplored.
More JDM Dissertations, 1994-1998
More titles of doctoral dissertations in the JDM area from the last five years are shown below to add to the list begun in the last issue. Please send information for dissertations in which you have been involved, either as writer or as faculty advisor, since 1994. My contact information is on p. 2 of the newsletter. A listing of all titles that have been sent is also available on the society's web page at <http://www.sjdm.org/sjdm/dissertations.html>. Congratulations to all those involved!
Shawn Curley, Editor
Blonk, A. M. (October,1997). DYSLEXPERT: The development and evaluation of an expert system for the diagnosis of reading and spelling problems. University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands. Contact advisor (John van den Bercken, <J.vandenBercken@ped.kun>) for current information.
Buchan, Nancy R. (December 1997). Culture, fairness, and trust: Contrasting influences on negotiation behavior and outcomes in China, Korea, Japan, and the United States. University of Pennsylvania. Now at University of Wisconsin - Madison, <nbuchan@bus.wisc.edu>.
Grimbergen, E. R. W. (November,1994). Model-based diagnosis in the ill-defined domain of beginning reading. University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands. Contact advisor (Edward van Aarle, <E.vanAarle@ped.kun.nl>) for current information.
Miller, Cathleen L. (September, 1998). Time pressure, accountability, and attitudes: Effects on auditor judgment. University of Kentucky. Now at University of Michigan - Flint, <catmillr@flint.umich.edu>.
Pijnenburg, H. M. (October, 1996). Psychodiagnostic decision-making within clinical conferences: Exploring a domain. University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands. Contact supervisor (Eric De Bruyn, <E.deBruyn@ped.kun.nl>) for current information.
Vermande, M. M. (June,1995). Psychodiagnostics: Classification and hypothesis-generation. University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands. Contact supervisor (Eric De Bruyn, <E.deBruyn@ped.kun.nl>) for current information.
Zeelenberg, Marcel. (October, 1996). On the importance of what might have been: Psychological perspectives on regret and decision making. Department of Social Psychology, University van Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Now at the Department of Marketing, Tilburg University, The Netherlands, <M.Zeelenberg@kub.nl>.
November 21, 1998
Action taken, November 23, 1998:
The membership voted to approve the proposed change to Article VI, A and Article VI, B of the By-Laws. The By-Laws will read as follows:
Article VI. Elections
in Decision Analysis
Each year the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS solicits student papers on decision analysis, typically (but not necessarily) based upon a Ph.D. dissertation or Master's thesis. These papers are evaluated by a panel of judges and the winner receives a cash prize of $500 and is invited to present his paper at the fall INFORMS meeting where the result of the competition is announced.
If you are a faculty member who is supervising students, would you please inform them of this opportunity? If your students are not currently members of DAS, you might also encourage them to join. If you are a student reading this, please encourage your classmates to submit a paper and to join the society. DAS is a congenial organization of close to 800 members (of which almost 200 are students) and there has been a rise in recent student participation. Joining DAS seems to be a good start toward developing a professional identity. However, students do not need to be DAS members to be eligible for the competition.
All students doing work in or related to decision analysis are encouraged to submit a paper. The work must be predominately that of the student, though faculty members or other mentors can be co-authors if appropriate. The paper should be 30 pages or less (double spaced) and in standard Management Science or Operations Research format.
To be considered for the 1999 competition, please send three copies of the paper to:
Prof. Elke Weber
Department of Psychology
The Ohio State University
1885 Neil Avenue
Columbus, OH 43210.
All submissions must be received by July 31, 1999. You can contact me at <weber.211@osu.edu> or 614-688-4081 if you have any questions.
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN POSTDOCTORAL TRAINEESHIP in QUANTITATIVE METHODS: NIMH funded training in quantitative methods for behavioral and social research. Appointment commences July or August 1999. Seminars on advanced topics including multivariate analysis, multidimensional scaling, decision theory, combinatorial methods for data analysis, and social network models. Opportunities for both methodological and applications research. Faculty includes: C. Anderson, U. Bockenholt, D. Budescu, L. Hubert, L.E. Jones, R. McDonald, J. Meulman, G. Miller, and S. Wasserman. Stipend range: $21,000 to $26,160. Applicants should be citizens or have been admitted for permanent residence. Funding limits appointments to individuals who are no more than two years post-PhD. Curriculum Vitae, statement of research interests, reprints, and three letters of recommendation should be sent to: Lawrence E. Jones, Director, Quantitative Methods Training Program, 431 Psychology Bldg., 603 E. Daniel, Champaign, Illinois 61820. E-mail <ljones@s.psych.uiuc.edu>. Deadline is February 28, 1999.
UNIVERSITY OF LOUISVILLE
The University of Louisville invites applications for the position of
Professor and Chair of the Department of Psychology. Position will
start July 1, 1999. We seek an individual with a national reputation
as an out-standing scientist, a vigorous research program with a
strong record of external funding, demonstrated leadership and
administrative abilities, and a commitment to outstanding
undergraduate and doctoral education. An excellent recruitment
package is available, including a highly competitive salary, generous
start-up funding, and the opportunity to guide recruiting of new
junior faculty in 1999-2000. The Challenge for Excellence, a major
initiative to foster research and teaching excellence, is underway at
the University of Louisville. Areas targeted for this investment
include the Psychology Department's programs in cognition and in
perception and sensory physiology. Other areas targeted in the
Challenge include neuroscience, genetics, early child development,
visual science, and social work. The Psychology Department supports a
large under-graduate major, and active Ph.D. programs in clinical,
cognitive, perception and sensory physiology, and social psychology,
and 20+ faculty of rapidly rising research prominence. Candidates
with research programs in Challenge areas are particularly desirable,
but applicants from all areas of psychology are welcome. Applicants
should send a description of research and administrative abilities and
experience, teaching goals, curriculum vitae, and the names of three
references to Carolyn Mervis, Ph.D., Search Committee Chair,
Department of Psychology, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY
40292. Review of applications will begin January 1, 1999. Women and
minorities are encouraged to apply. The University of Louisville is
an Affirmative Action, Equal Opportunity Employer.
UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHAPEL HILL
The Department of Psychology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel
Hill is inviting applications for four tenure-track positions. This targeted
notice concerns one of them. See the last paragraph regarding information
about the others.
COGNITIVE OR SENSORY PSYCHOLOGIST: Assistant or beginning
Associate Professor. We are seeking a cognitive or a sensory psychologist
whose orientation is strongly influenced by considerations of the underlying
biology. Scientists using either animals or human participants are invited to
apply. Candidates are expected to have an active research program, as well
as strong interests in incorporating information technology in their teaching.
Thomas Wallsten, Chair, Cognitive/Neural Search Committee (email:
tom.wallsten@unc.edu).
The position begins July 1999. Candidates should have a strong record of
programmatic research and a demonstrated commitment to teaching
undergraduate and graduate students. In view of the Department's effort to
foster across-program research in cognition and cognitive neuroscience,
interpersonal processes, quantitative methods, and health psychology, the
potential for contributing across programs will be valued. The University and
the Department have strong commitments to the principle of diversity and we
specifically invite and encourage applications from members of ethnic and
racial minorities.
All applicants should submit the following non-returnable materials:
curriculum vitae; personal statement describing qualifications and research
and teaching interests, as well as future directions; teaching evaluations; up
to five reprints or preprints; and four letters of reference to Thomas Wallsten,
Chair, Cognitive/Neural Search Committee, Department of Psychology, CB
#3270, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC
27599-3270. Deadline for applications: November 15, 1998. The University
of North Carolina is an Equal Opportunity Employer.
The department is also recruiting for positions in clinical, quantitative, and
social psychology. See the departments web site,
http://www.unc.edu/depts/psychweb/, for more detail. Candidates wishing to
apply for more than one position should send separate application materials
for each position.
We welcome suggestions and comments about new features.
Alan Cooke <acooke@sjdm.org>
Alan Schwartz <alansz@sjdm.org>
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REFERENCE ARCHIVE
The system allows users to store and retrieve book and chapter references
related to the fields of judgment and decision making. The archive is located
at:
references@mail.sjdm.org
You can also access the reference archive through the Society's web site (address below). For more information send the message "help" to the e-mail address.
WORLD WIDE WEB
The J/DM Society has a set of pages on the World-Wide Web, providing
information about the Society and Society Membership, upcoming events, all
our electronic services (including course syllabi, easy-to-use forms for
subscribing to SJDM mailing lists, and help with the reference archive), links
to related Web sites that may be of interest to members, copies of the JDM
Newsletter (for society members), and the SJDM directory with links to
members' home pages. The URL (uniform resource locator) for the Web
page is:
http://www.sjdm.org
ONLINE SOCIETY NEWSLETTERS
The SJDM newsletters are available on-line and through email. If you would
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You must be a member of the society in good standing to subscribe to this mailing list.
NEW from OXFORD
OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS 198 Madison Avenue,
New York, NY 10016
Human Judgment and Social Policy
Irreducible Uncertainty, Inevitable Error,
Unavoidable Injustice
KENNETH R. HAMMOND
The critical role of human judgment -- complete with its failures, flaws, and successes -- has never been more hotly debated and analyzed than it is today. This landmark work examines the dynamics of judgment and its impact on events which require the direction and control of social policy. Drawing on 50 years of empirical research in judgment and decision making, Hammond examines the possibilities for wisdom and cognitive competence in a work that will interest a wide audience of readers, including historians, social scientists, and policy-makers.
Kenneth R. Hammond is Professor Emeritus of Psychology at the Institute of Cognitive Science at the University of Colorado and a member of the university's Center for Research on Judgment and Policy. He is widely known as a leader in the field of decision theory.
448 pp. 19 illus.; 6-1/8 x 9-1/4
$48.00 0-19-509734-3
CONTENTS
PART I: Rivalry
PART II: Tension
4. Origins of Tensions Between Coherence and Correspondence Theories of
Competence in Judgment and Decision Making 5. The Evolutionary Roots of Correspondence Competence
PART III: Compromise and Reconciliation
6. Reducing Rivalry Through Compromise
7. Task Structure, Cognitive Change, and Pattern Recognition
8. Reducing Tensions Between Coherence and Correspondence Through
Constructive Complementarity
PART IV: Possibilities
9. Is It Possible to Learn by Intervening?
10. Is It Possible to Learn from Representing?
11. Possibilities for Wisdom
12. The Possible Future of Cognitive Competence
Call 1-800-451-7556 to order
Or visit the Oxford University Press website at http://www.oup-usa.org
November 2, 1998
Memorandum to: Scientists and practitioners interested in
Bayesian research, inference by people,
machines, or a blend, evaluation and decision
making by the same, decision support systems,
expert systems for inference and/or decision,
and the like
From: Ward Edwards
Subject: 37th Annual Bayesian Research Conference
This is your invitation to come and participate in the 37th Annual Bayesian Research Conference. The conference will be held on February 18 and 19, 1999 at the Sportsmen's Lodge Hotel. Most of you will recall that the Sportsmen's Lodge is located at the intersection of Ventura Boulevard and Coldwater Canyon Boulevard in Studio City, California.
Our format and purpose will be the same this year as in recent previous years. We hear (and many of us will give) 30-minute papers about research on inference, evaluation, decision processes and problems. We always strive for a blend of basic research and applications. A mixture of behavioral and normative interests has characterized us over the years. This means that decision analysts and behavioral decision theorists will be talking to one another. In recent years a number of members of the Normative AI Systems community have attended. So, in addition to more familiar topics like utility, probability, cognitive illusions, and the like, we will also hear about influence diagrams, formal representations of uncertainty, utility theory as a basis for control, and similar topics. We are as ecumenical about topics as about people; new topics that surprise me turn up each year.
As old hands know, the atmosphere is informal, the discussion can get intense, and many of the best debates take place during coffee breaks or in the hospitality suite at the end of the day. This Conference is a good place to try out your latest, wildest set of ideas on a kindly, knowledgeable, and critical audience. It is not a good place to make once again the speech for which you have received plaudits for the last two years. While some of our topics are technically demanding, the diversity of backgrounds of those attending calls for restraint in presenting mathematical materials; few of us are theorem- provers. (Some are, and indeed some papers prove theorems. But we need to be told why, and led gently by the hand through proofs.)
The special papers of the 1997 Conference, all intended to be part of a Festschrift volume in my honor, have indeed led to a volume. I got to see the whole book early. It is terrific! As I said in my chapter, "Don't lend it to a friend; you'll never get it back." It will be on display at this coming Conference.
To get to the Sportsmen's Lodge, if you are driving, get to the Ventura Freeway, turn East from the San Diego Freeway or West from the Hollywood Freeway, exit at Coldwater Canyon Boulevard, drive South to Ventura Boulevard, and you are there; it is on the NE corner of that intersection.
Those not driving have various options. If you fly into Burbank Airport and have a reservation, simply phone the Sportsmen's Lodge and they will send a van to pick you up, if it is before 10 pm. If you fly into LAX, numerous shuttle services will, for a price, take you from LAX to the Sportsmen's Lodge. Flyaway Bus Service will get you to Van Nuys, which is pretty close; from there you can take a cab.
The Conference will have a registration fee of $50 per person. There will be a hospitality room on Wednesday and Thursday nights. Those who choose to stay over Friday evening will find other colleagues who do the same; we usually have a good time. All who do are invited to join me at my house for post-Conference drinks and conversation, after which we all usually go out to dinner.
If you indicate on the questionnaire that you must talk or want to talk, you should assume that you are on the program. If you check "schedule me if time permits," bring your viewgraphs but don't be hurt if time doesn't permit. I will, as usual, rewrite the title of your talk in an effort to make it funny unless you save yourself from my often inept ministrations by making it funny in the first place.
Please let us know as soon as you can whether or not you can come. We need answers by January 29, 1999, in order that the Sportsmen's Lodge can know how many rooms to hold.
If I have missed someone who should have been invited, please copy this and pass it on, or contact Letty Baz via email at <baz@mizar.usc.edu>. If you need to reach me, my home phone number is 818-985-4094, and my email address is <wedwards@mizar.usc.edu>. Now that I am emeritus, I no longer use my USC addresses. Please send the registration form back to Letty Baz at the address shown on the form; sending it to me would only enhance the probability of its getting lost, since I would have to pass it on to her.
I'll see you in the Hospitality Suite on Wednesday evening, February 17, at 6:00 pm or any time after that. Do come Wednesday evening. It's a good time to visit with old friends, meet new ones, and prepare yourself for the following day's stimulation.
Registration Form
37th Bayesian Research Conference
February 18-19, 1999
Name:
Affiliation:
Address:
Phone:
Email:
PLEASE FILL OUT and RETURN BY JANUARY 29 TO:
Letty Baz
Social Science Research Institute
c/o 1629 N. Pepper Street
Burbank, CA 91505
_____ February 17, Wednesday night, hospitality suite
_____ February 18, Thursday meeting session
_____ February 19, Friday meeting session
_____ All of the above
2. What accommodations would you prefer:
_____ Sportsmen's Lodge Hotel
_____ Single Room $98.00
_____ Double Room $98.00
_____ Smoking _____ Non-Smoking
_____ I will make my own accommodations.
3. Reservation request:
_____ Wednesday and Thursday (nights of Feb. 17 and 18)
_____ Wednesday, Thursday, & Friday (nights of Feb. 17, 18, 19)
_____ Wednesday, Thursday, Friday & Saturday (nights of Feb. 17-20)
_____ Thursday and Friday (nights of Feb. 18 and 19)
_____ Wednesday night only (Feb. 17)
_____ Other (please specify:)
4. Request to be scheduled as speaker on conference program:
_____ Yes _____ No
Title:
Check one:
_____ Must speak
_____ Must speak to have trip financed
_____ Would like to speak
_____ Schedule me only if time permits
5. Audio/Visual equipment needed:
6. Additional comments: (Other appropriate invitees, please include
address, special arrangements, etc.)
Please note that in order to hold room block reservations, the registration form must be returned no later than JANUARY 29. Your promptness will be greatly appreciated.
Registration fee is $50.00 including meeting room and hospitality suite refreshments. Please return checks made payable to Ward Edwards along with this form.
No confirmation notices will be mailed. Receipts will be available at the conference.
The Nineteenth International Symposium on Forecasting
Washington DC
June 27 - 30, 1999
Conference Theme: Strategic Forecasting for Government and Business
The International Institute of Forecasters is organizing the 19th International Symposium on Forecasting in Washington DC from June 27-30, 1999. The nation's capital houses a multitude of federal institutions that generate and implement policies that have far reaching consequences both on the United States and on other nations in the world. The neighboring areas of Virginia, Delaware, and Maryland support a vast volume of private businesses. The location of this symposium will provide a forum for presentation and discussion of issues that influence strategic forecasting research and practice in government and businesses. The Symposium's website is: http://ifsm2.ifsm.umbc.edu/isf/ Abstract Deadline: February 16, 1999
The 19th International Symposium on Forecasting will bring together
academics and practitioners from a wide range of countries, organizations,
and disciplines from around the world. This will be an opportunity to
engage in discussion on the latest developments in forecasting methods
and their applications across a wide spectrum of problems in government
and business.
Papers are invited on all aspects of forecasting, in particular the conference
theme. You may present a paper which is primarily theoretical in nature
describing a contribution to forecasting theory or methodology, or is of an
applied and empirical nature addressing specific uses of forecasting in
government and business decision making and policy formulation.
Abstracts of 150 or fewer words with KEYWORDS in the beginning of
the abstract, should be sent to the Program Chairperson, Karen Hamrick.
Preferred mode of submission is e-mail although fax and traditional mail
are welcome. Please include names of author(s), affiliation, address,
phone number, and an e-mail address if available. Letters of acceptance
will be sent to the first author by no later than March 31, 1999.
Conference Registration
By April 16, 1999 After April 16, 1999
IIF Members $400 $485
Non-IIF Members $485 $570
Full Time Students* $175 $200
* Note: Students require proof of full time enrolment.
The registration fee includes: Conference pack, Sunday welcoming reception, Monday and Tuesday luncheons, and Monday reception at the Russian Embassy. Registration for non-members also includes a one-year membership of the International Institute of Forecasters and a one year subscription to the International Journal of Forecasting. One day passes are available; contact the General Chairperson, Peg Young (pegyoung@ix.netcom.com), for more information. Prior to the symposium there will be a series of application workshops where you will be able to update your forecasting skills and knowledge; topics and fees for these seminars will be available at a later date.
THE 8TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SOCIAL DILEMMAS The 8th International Conference on Social Dilemmas will be held in Zichron-Yaakov, Israel on July 12-16, 1999. The meeting will bring together scientists from psychology, economics, sociology and other disciplines who are interested in the theoretical and empirical study of social dilemma and problems of public goods provision. Those interested in presenting a paper should submit (preferably by e-mail) a short (150 words) abstract before March 1st. Please indicate the following details for each co-author: Name, affiliation, address, fax, e-mail, and status (faculty/student). Also indicate whether you would be willing to present your paper as a poster if an individual paper slot is not available.
The e-mail address for submitting abstracts is: <msdcon@pluto.mscc.huji.ac.il> or mail to:
Gary Bornstein
Department of Psychology
Mount Scopus
The Hebrew University
Jerusalem 91905
ISRAEL
Acceptance will be announced by April 15th.
Early registration before May 15th, 1999: Registration fees: Faculty: $250
Students: $100. Registration after May 15th will cost $50 more.
Fifteenth Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
July 30-August 1, 1999
Location TBA (near the site of IJCAI-99 in Stockholm, Sweden)
The UAI Proceedings have become a basic reference for researches and practitioners who want to know about both theoretical advances and the latest applied developments in the field. The scope of UAI covers a broad spectrum of approaches to automated reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. Contributions to the proceedings address topics that advance theoretical principles or provide insights through empirical study of applications.
Please visit the UAI-99 WWW page at <http://uai99.iet.com> for more information on the conference and paper submissions.
Please send all inquiries (submissions and conference organization) to the following e-mail address: <uai99@iet.com>. Program Co-chairs: Kathryn Blackmond Laskey, Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030-4444, USA, (703) 993-1644, fax: (703) 993-1706, <klaskey@gmu.edu>. Henri Prade, I.R.I.T., Universite Paul Sabatier, 118 Route de Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse Cedex 4, FRANCE, (33) 561 55 6579, fax: (33) 561 55 6239, <uai99@irit.fr>.
COGNITIVE SCIENCE SOCIETY CONFERENCE
We are pleased to announce the twenty-first annual meeting of the
Cognitive Science Society on August 19-21, 1999. The conference site is
Vancouver, British Columbia, on the downtown campus of Simon Fraser
University. Our goal in organizing this conference is to reflect the full
spectrum of the many research areas in Cognitive Science. We welcome
all submissions, and trust that multiple research themes will emerge
naturally. We are especially interested in submissions in areas that have
been under represented at recent conferences. There are six categories for
submissions:
Spoken Papers: 20-minute spoken presentations; reviewed and published as
six-page papers in the Proceedings. Submission length: up to 2000 words.
Symposia: Two-hour spoken presentations, including three or more
well-integrated talks on a common topic; reviewed and published as one-page
abstracts in the Proceedings. Submission length: up to 1000 words. Posters:
Standard poster presentations; reviewed and published as 6-page papers in the
Proceedings. Submission length: up to 2000 words.
Abstract Posters: Poster presentations by full members of the Society only;
not reviewed or published in the proceedings. Submission length: up to 500
words. Society members can submit abstracts for posters through March 6,
1999.
Tutorials: Sessions devoted to technical tutorials may be offered. Possible
topics include hidden Markov models, ACT model, cognitive task analysis, &
fMRI. For more information, see
http://www.psychology.nottingham.ac.uk/staff/ritter/cogsci99/proposals.html
Workshops: Sessions devoted to education in Cognitive Science may also be
offered. Proposals for "how-to" sessions on undergraduate and graduate
programs of study are requested. For more information, see
http://depts.vassar.edu/~cogsci/Workshops.html
Information on electronic submission formats can be found at our
conference website: http://www.sfu.ca/cogsci99/
Conference Chair: Prof. Martin Hahn, < cogsci99@sfu.ca>, CogSci99,
c/o Philosophy Dept., Simon Fraser Univ., Vancouver, B.C., V5A 1S6.
DEADLINE: All submissions must be received by FEBRUARY 6, 1999,
for consideration.
For Cognitive Science Society membership information, please see
<http://www.umich.edu/~cogsci/>.
Society for Mathematical Psychology University of California, Santa Cruz, CA
29 July to 1 August, 1999
The 32nd annual meeting of the Society for Mathematical Psychology will
be held at the University of California, Santa Cruz, CA. The organizing
committee includes Michael Wenger and Dominic Massaro. The meetings
will follow the usual format, with paper sessions over two and one-half
days (30 July to 1 August). We will also be considering adding a poster
session, as was the case at last year's meetings.
Papers for the meetings may be submitted by regular members, student members, and non-members. Any one person may present only one paper, but may be a co-author of other papers, or may be an invited speaker or symposium participant. Papers will be limited to those in which mathematical, statistical, or simulation methods play a significant role in the development of psychological hypotheses or the interpretation of results. Purely theoretical developments should clearly relate to substantive issues or contribute to methodologies of obvious use in psychology, cognitive science, cognitive neuroscience, and related areas. Experimental results should bear directly on some mathematical or simulation model.
Programs of past meetings appear in the Journal of Mathematical Psychology and are available on the web at <http://www.socsci.uci.edu/smp/>. A complete call for papers, including instructions for submission, registration and lodging information, will be forthcoming. Please contact Michael Wenger (mjwenger@cats.ucsc.edu) with any questions or need for information.
FUR IX - 9th International Conference on the Foundations &
Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory: Marrakesh,
Morocco, June 1-4, 1999. Abstract deadline: January 15, 1999. For
information contact: Pr. B. Munier, Program Committee, F.U.R. IX, G.R.I.D.,
Ecole Normale Sup,rieure de Cachan, 94235 Cachan Cedex, France;
<fur9@grid.ens-cachan.fr>, or see
<http://www.ecogest.ens-cachan.fr/grid/fur9>.
American Psychological Society: Adam's Mark Denver Hotel, Denver, CO, June 3-6, 1999. Abstract deadline: April 30, 1999. For information contact: Richard McFall, Indiana University, (812) 855-0349, fax (812) 855-4691, <mcfall@ucs.indiana.edu>, or see <http://www.psychologicalscience.org>.
International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and their Applications: Universiteit Gent, Ghent, Belgium, June 30-July 2, 1999. Submission deadline: January 31, 1999. For information contact: ISIPTA '99 Secretariat, p/a Gert de Cooman, Universiteit Gent, Onderzoeksgroep YteMS, Technologiepark 9, 9052 Zwijnaarde, Belgium; +32 (0) 9- 264.56.53; fax +32 (0) 9-264.58.40; <isipta99@ensmain.rug.ac.be>; or see <http://ensmain.rug.ac.be/~ipp>.
SPUDM 17: University of Mannheim, Germany, August 9-11,1999. Submission deadlines: Symposia January 11, 1999; talks February 15, 1999. For information contact: Mrs. Jutta Bender, University of Mannheim, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, 68131 Mannheim, Germany; <spudm99@sfb504.uni-mannheim.de>; or see <www.spudm99.unimannheim. de>.
Society for Judgment and Decision Making: Los Angeles, November 20-22, 1999.
Upcoming JDM Meetings
2000: New Orleans
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