SOCIETY for JUDGMENT and DECISION MAKING NEWSLETTER VOL XV Number 1 March, 1996
The JDM Society Newsletter is now available through e-mail, and the JDM Directory is now available at the society's website. These and other new on-line services are described on page 5 of the newsletter. And, don't forget the services that have been available. A summary of previously existing services is on page 4 of the newsletter.
The 1996 Directory will be compiled soon. To assure that it is current and accurate, please check your address and other information from last year's directory. To make any changes, send in the dues form on p. 11 with the new information. If you haven't done so, send in your dues for 1996 using the same form. The form also allows you to sign up for discounted subscriptions to the journals OBHDP and JBDM.
From the Editor...................................2
From the President................................3
On-Line...........................................4
Call for Submissions..............................6
Book Review.......................................8
Hillel Einhorn New Investigator Award For 1996....9
Book Ad...........................................9
Upcoming Meetings................................10
Dues and Journal Subscriptions...................11
Decision Newsletter..............................12
1996 EXECUTIVE BOARD
Barbara Mellers, President
Hal R. Arkes, President-Elect
Terry Connolly, Past President
Robyn M. Dawes, 1994-1996
Lola Lopes, 1995-1997
Elke Weber, 1996-1998
Irwin P. Levin, Secretary/Treasurer
Editor:
Shawn P. Curley
Department of Info. & Decision Sciences
University of Minnesota
271 19th Avenue S.
Minneapolis, MN 55455
(612) 624-6546
FAX: (612) 626-1316
E-Mail: scurley@csom.umn.edu
Dues, Addresses & Corrections:
Irwin P. Levin
Department of Psychology
University of Iowa
Iowa City, IA 52242
(319) 335-2451
E-Mail: irwin-levin@uiowa.edu
The J/DM Newsletter welcomes submissions from individuals and groups. However, we do not publish substantive papers. Book reviews will be published. If you are interested in reviewing books and related materials, please write to the editor.
There are few ground rules for submissions. The best way to send your contribution is via EMAIL or in an ASCII file on a 3.5" or 5.25" diskette. If you must send hard-copy (e.g., if you are using special graphics or do not have computer access), please submit camera-ready copy. This means that the copy should be typed single-spaced on white 8« by 11 paper. If possible, use a carbon or film ribbon. Please mail flat -- do not fold.
Advertising Rates: Advertising can be submitted to the editor. Inclusion of the ad and the space given to the ad is at the editor's discretion. The current charge is $75 per page to cover production and mailing costs. Contact Shawn Curley for details. Alternatively, you can use--
Mailing Labels: Some readers may wish to send reprint lists or other material to people listed in the directory. The current charge is $100 for a set of labels. Contact Irwin Levin for details.
Address corrections: Please check your mailing label carefully. Because the J/DM Newsletter is usually sent by bulk mail, copies with incorrect addresses or which are otherwise undeliverable are neither forwarded nor returned. Therefore, we have no way of knowing if copies are delivered. Address changes or corrections should be sent to Irwin Levin.
Subscriptions: Subscriptions are available on a calendar year basis only. Requests for information concerning membership in the Society for Judgment and Decision Making should be sent to Irwin Levin.
Foreign Air Mail: Newsletters to non-US addresses are normally sent as printed matter air mail. For an additional $10 per year, non-US subscribers can have the newsletters sent letter class air mail. To obtain this service, contact Irwin Levin or include $10 and a note with your next dues payment.
For almost five decades, researchers in judgment and decision making have explored human errors in judgment and choice. We have documented instances in which people violate fundamental principles and axioms. We have discovered cases in which people disobey the most basic rules of statistics, probability, and logic. We have identified factors that should be irrelevant, but aren't, such as the response mode, the problem representation, and the decision frame.
What are the legacies of this research? We have probed the boundaries of human rationality. We have discovered important limitations of cognitive processing, and we understand how poor judgment makes people their own worst enemies. But somewhere along the way, we lost sight of everything else.
While walking across campus to a colloquium one afternoon, a colleague asked me whether the speaker was a member of the JDM Society. When I told him "yes," he said, "Then give me a quick preview. What is the error of the day?" He was perfectly serious. We are well known for setting traps and taking delight at human failure.
Haven't we reached the point of diminishing returns? Demonstrations of one more error for the sake of an error, or one more violation for the sake of a violation, are nothing new. Not only are they not new, they add to an already lopsided view of human competence. We need theories of decision making that predict not only errors, biases, and violations of axioms, but also broader themes of psychological and social functioning. We know very little about the effects of emotions on choice. We know very little about the relationships between decision making and signal detection, memory retrieval, or categorization. Not only that, we know very little about the impact of social context. Why are certain errors, and not others, attenuated in experimental markets, and possibly other institutional settings?
One of the reasons we may have become so preoccupied with errors is because we applied to our descriptive theories the organizing principles from our normative theories. In normative theories, we classify decisions depending on the assignment of probabilities to states of nature (decision making under certainty, risk, uncertainty, or conflict), and these categories may not be optimal for descriptive theorizing. In the animal literature, decisions are often classified on the basis of the animal's activities, such as foraging and mating. Perhaps functional distinctions might be appropriate in the human literature as well. How often have you heard complaints that our theories apply to purchasing decisions, but not decisions about marriage or children? How often have you heard complaints that our theories of gambles don't generalize to medical treatments, job opportunities, or even vacation sites? Perhaps the missing links in our descriptive theories would become more apparent with a different set of organizing principles that highlight our activities, goals, and desires.
We have gotten a great deal of mileage out of errors. Decision making is discussed in many psychology texts. It is also cited in marketing, organizational behavior, political science, and microeconomics texts. Philosophers, economists, and statisticians are also developing richer and more interesting definitions of rationality. Finally, psychologists have begun to study human strengths as well as human weakness, and this work should have important consequences for artificial intelligence systems designed to complement and aid human decision making.
To have a lasting impact, we should continue to go beyond errors, mistakes, and other human failures and adopt a broader perspective. As John Locke said, "It is one thing to show a man that he is in error, and another to put him in possession of the truth."
We welcome suggestions and comments about new features.---- Alan Schwartz and Alan Cooke
Electronic Mailing Lists (more information is in the Newsletter,
July 1994)
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Reference Archive (more information is in the Newsletter, February 1995)
The system allows users to store and retrieve book and chapter references related to the fields of judgment and decision making. The archive is located at:
references@mellers1.psych.berkeley.edu
For more information send the message "help" to this address.
World-Wide Web
The J/DM Society now has a set of pages on the World-Wide Web, providing information about the Society and Society Membership, upcoming events, all our electronic services (including easy-to-use forms for subscribing to SJDM mailing lists, and help with the reference archive), and links to related Web sites that may be of interest to members. The URL (uniform resource locator) for the Web page is:
http://mellers1.psych.berkeley.edu/sjdm
Internet Subject Cooperative (more information is in the Newsletter, July 1994)
This service allows researchers to fill out each other's questionnaires and surveys, for pilot studies or real data. Contact Jon Baron, the moderator of the effort
baron@cattell.psych.upenn.edu
Federation News
The monthly newsletter of the Federation of Behavioral, Psychological and Cognitive Sciences is available electronically. Contact the Federation at:
federation@apa.org
Manuscript Archive
Many people have suggested that the Society maintain a list of working papers and/or tech reports. This allows people to contact researchers working on similar problems without having to wait until the relevant papers are published. It is now possible to do this through the SJDM Reference Archive.
By "manuscript", we mean any paper not currently published. So working papers, tech reports and the like are all "manuscripts." Published books, book chapters, and journal articles are NOT manuscripts. In the event of publication of a manuscript in the archive, please let us know when and where the paper was published, so that we can update the archive.
To submit a manuscript reference to the archive, follow the normal procedure: Send mail to:
references@mellers1.psych.berkeley.edu
The first line of the body should say submit manuscript. The same data fields are used except that the title field is now "Title_manuscript:" Contact information (your address) is required for manuscript submissions.
To get help on submitting manuscripts and an example submission, send e-mail to the above address having the following message:
help submit manuscript
The addition of manuscript capabilities does not alter how you search the archive for references. The command "search author Jabberwocky" would find all references having "Jabberwocky" in any author field, regardless of whether they are books, chapters, or manuscripts. If you want, you can restrict your searches to only manuscripts by adding "AND Reference_type manuscript" to the end of all your search strings.
WWW Interface to the Reference Archive
Many people find using the e-mail interface to the reference archive slow and tedious. We have now installed forms at the Society World-Wide-Web site that allow users to search the archive and submit references directly through their browser. They are located in the Reference Archive section of the Electronic Services page at the Society website (http://mellers1.psych.berkeley.edu/sjdm). Each form explains its use. The WWW interface makes dealing with the archive much easier. Try it out!
Society Newsletters On-line
The SJDM newsletters are now available on-line and through email. If you would like to receive text-only versions of the newsletter via e-mail, subscribe to the "jdm-newsletter" mailing list. Send mail to:
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You must be a member of the society in good standing to subscribe to this mailing list. If you would like to view the Society newsletters on the World-Wide-Web, they are located on the Electronic Services page of the SJDM website. These can be printed and searched using your web browser. In order to access the newsletters on the web, you must have a username and password. On your first visit to the site, go to the "registrar." You will be asked a question that requires the current SJDM membership directory to answer. Once you have successfully answered this question, you will be asked to provide a username and password. This username and password will be used to access members-only documents at the site on this and all subsequent visits.
SJDM Directory On-line
The SJDM directory is also available at the Society website. It lists address, phone, and e-mail addresses for Society members, and is accessible only to Society members. It also has links to members' home pages, and will in the future provide lists of research interests. You can use your web browser to search for particular members or affiliations.
We hope that you find these services useful. As always, we welcome your comments and suggestions.
Alan Cooke <acooke@garnet.berkeley.edu> Alan Schwartz <alansz@cogsci.berkeley.edu>
1996 J/DM ANNUAL MEETING
Submission Deadline: JULY 5, 1996
The JDM 1996 Program Committee invites proposals for symposia, individual papers, or posters on any theoretical, empirical, or applied topic related to judgment and decision making. Anyone interested in participating in the program of the 1996 JDM meeting in Chicago, November 2-4, should submit the materials described below to the appropriate address.
Symposia and papers:
Sandra Schneider
Department of Psychology, BEH 339
University of South Florida
4202 East Fowler Avenue
Tampa, FL 33620-8200 USA
sandra@chuma.cas.usf.edu
fax: (813) 974-4617 (attn: Sandra Schneider)
Posters:
Gretchen Chapman
(address on poster submission form)
At the top of each submission, please indicate:
Symposia are usually allotted about 90 minutes each, and include 3 or 4 speakers and perhaps a discussant. Submit a 100-200 word description of the intended theme and format of the session. Attach a list of intended participants, including, for each, their address, phone, and e-mail and a brief description of the topic of their talk. Please confirm the speakers' willingness to participate prior to submitting their names.
Topics of interest suggested at last year's meeting include:
Submit a one-page abstract of the paper. You may also include a copy of a completed paper, but need not.
Use the application form on the following page (or follow the same format for e-mail submissions). Note that at least one of the authors of the paper must be a JDM member.
POSTER PRESENTATION APPLICATION
Society for Judgment and Decision Making
Annual Meeting, Chicago, Illinois
Saturday-Monday November 2-4, 1996
Author 2: J/DM Member? YES NO
Institution:
Author 3: J/DM Member? YES NO
Institution:
2. Title of presentation (12 words or less):
3. Abstract (100 words or less):
4. To whom should correspondence be addressed?
Name: Phone:
Address:
email:
Send application (mail, fax, or email) by JULY 5, 1996 to:
Gretchen Chapman
Department of Medical Education (M/C 591)
University of Illinois at Chicago
808 South Wood Street, Suite 986
Chicago, IL 60612-7309 USA
gchapman@uic.edu
(312) 413-1963
fax: (312) 413-2048
Title: Intuition: The New Frontier of Management; Blackwell;
ISBN 0-631-19225-5; Pp 278; 1994
Editors: Jagdish Parikh is Managing Director of the Lemuir
group of companies in India, President of the Indo-European
Business Development Centre, Vice Chairman of the World
Business Academy (USA) and a visiting professor at several
international management centres and multinational cooperations.
Friedrich Neubauer is professor of Multinational Corporate
Strategy and Planning at IMD, Lausanna. His major research
interests--in addition to intuition--are Corporate Boards and
European Management Systems.
Alden Lank is Professor of Organizational Behavior and Stephen
Schmidheiny Professor of Family Enterprises also at IMD,
Lausanna. His research interests lie in the fields of organization
development, general management and family business.
Intended audience: Tomorrow's managers; those who think globally
This book is recommended if you are interested in objective and subjective ratings of the individual levels of intuition, definitions and descriptions of intuition, the use of intuition in professional and personal life and specific examples of intuition applications (like visioning and creative problem solving).
Book's aims
Judgment and Intuition
Carl Jung explained that the next stage in our thinking after perception is judgment. This judgment is also referred to as intuition, and ranges from "hunches" to the crowning examples of creative art or scientific discovery. Intuition may be about fundamental reality or about a particular, immediate situation. There can be a whole range of people, event, things or ideas about which one can have an intuition or judgment. It is argued that people fall into two types: those who depend upon their rational thinking and those who depend more upon their feelings. The latter are classified as being more intuitive than the former.
Decision Making and Intuition
References to the role of intuition in decision-making are turning up ever more frequently in most reputable business journals, especially relating to creativity, entrepreneurial vision, etc. Creating a visual image of goals which can be shared, choosing the directions which lend themselves to strategic decision making, and making those decisions which delineate specific objectives into definable tasks can be easily accomplished with a well-developed capacity for intuitive judgment on a moment-to-moment basis.
However, finding a working definition of intuition is hard. It is characterized as being multidimensional (skill, trait, being), multicontextual (instant response, short-term, ongoing) and at multilevels of consciousness (logical consciousness, subconsciousness, unconsciousness, supraconsciousness). Intuition is illustrated through its manifestation as noun, verb and adjective. The discussion ends with a statement of what intuition is not and a listing of the attributes of authentic intuition. The book works through all aspects in detail.
The results of a survey reflects viewpoints from 9 countries-- industrial market economies, middle-income developing countries and low-income developing countries. Individual countries are presented as well as a summary and the questionnaire used.
Finally, the book applies intuition to visions and visioning. An overall concept of vision and visioning is presented as well as the Parikh-Neubauer model of creating a corporate vision.
Contents Summary
Profile survey population
Intuition ratings
What is intuition?
Perceived relevance of intuition
How does one identify intuition?
Use of intuition
Options on certain notions
Views on certain aspects
Reviewer invites your comments at:
Sander Nijbakker MSc,BSc
Vlamoven 18
3402 SE Ysselstein
Netherlands
Nybakke@ibm.net
http://www.cs.mdx.ac.uk/staffpages/nijbakker/sander.htm
The Society for Judgment and Decision Making is soliciting submissions for the Hillel Einhorn New Investigator Award. The growth and vitality of the field of judgment and decision making depends upon the continuing involvement and participation of new researchers. The purpose of this award is to recognize and encourage outstanding work by new researchers. Eligible individuals either have not yet completed their Ph.D. or have completed their Ph.D. within the last five years (on or after July 1, 1991).
To be considered, submit four copies of a journal-style manuscript on any topic related to judgment and decision making. Submissions should be accompanied by (1) four copies of a summary or extended abstract of the paper, not to exceed four pages in length, and (2) a cover letter that includes the name of the investigator's graduate advisor and the date that the Ph.D. degree was awarded (if applicable). If the paper is co-authored with other investigators, the new investigator must be the first author and should be the primary source of the ideas. Submissions in dissertation format will not be considered, but articles based on a dissertation are encouraged. Both reprints of published articles and manuscripts that have not yet been published are acceptable.
Submissions will be judged by a committee appointed by the Society and chaired by Don Kleinmuntz. To be considered, submissions must be received by July 1, 1996. The committee will announce the results to the participants by September 15, 1996. The award will be announced and presented at the 1996 annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, to be held in Chicago on November 2-4, 1996. The winner will be invited to give a presentation at that meeting. If the winner can not obtain full funding from his or her own institution to attend the meeting, an application may be made to the Society for supplemental travel funds.
Material should be submitted by July 1, 1996 to: Professor Don N. Kleinmuntz; Department of Accountancy; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; 1206 South Sixth Street, Room 208; Champaign, IL 61820 USA; Phone: 217-333-0694; Fax: 217-244-0902; Email: dnk@uiuc.edu
Book Ad from
Cambridge University Press
40 West 20th Street
New York, NY 10011-4211 USA
(800) 872-7423
http://www.cup.org
Robert H. Ashton & Alison Hubbard Ashton, Editors Judgment and Decision-Making Research in Accounting and Auditing
1995 320 pp. 41844-5 hardback $59.95
Ralph L. Keeney & Howard Raiffa
Decision with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value
Tradeoffs
1993 589 pp. 43883-7 paperback $21.95
INFORMS: will be at the Washington Hilton and Towers, Washington, DC, May 5-8, 1996. For information contact: INFORMS Washington, 290 Westminster Street, Providence, RI 02903 USA, (401) 274-2525, (800) 343-0062, <np246001@brownvm.brown.edu>.
ABO Research Conference: will be at the Stardust Hotel, Las Vegas, NV, June 24-25, 1996. For information contact: E. Michael Bamber, J.M. Tull School of Accounting, Terry College of Business, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602- 6252 USA, (706) 542-3601, fax: (706) 542-7196, <mbamber@uga.cc.uga.edu>.
International Symposium on Forecasting: will be in Swiss"telthe Bosphorus in Istanbul, Turkey, June 24-26, 1996. For information contact: Muhittin Oral; Faculty of Business Administration; Bilkent University, 06533 Bilkent; Ankara, Turkey; +90 (312) 266-4775; fax: +90 (312) 266-4958; <oralm@bilkent.edu.tr>.
Making Statistics more Effective in Schools of Business: will be at the University of Alaska Anchorage, June 27-29, 1996. For information contact: University of Alaska Anchorage School of Business, 3211 Providence Dr., Anchorage, AK 99504 USA, (907) 786-4121, fax: (907) 786-4119.
American Psychological Society: will be at the San Francisco Hilton Hotel, San Francisco, CA, June 29-July 2, 1996. For information contact: Program Committee Chair Joseph Steinmetz, 812-855-3991, <steinmet@ucs.indiana.edu>.
Cognitive Science Society: will be at the University of
California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, July 12-15, 1996. For
information contact: Edwin Hutchins
<hutchins@cogsci.ucsd.edu> or Walter Savitch
<savitch@cogsci.ucsd.edu> or check
<http://www.cse.ucsd.edu/events/cogsci96/>.
International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process: will be at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, Canada, July 13-15, 1996. For information contact: William C. Wedley, ISAHP IV Chairperson, Faculty of Business Administration, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby B.C., CANADA, V5A 1S6, (604) 291-4528, fax: (604) 291-4920, <wedley@sfu.ca>.
Society for Mathematical Psychology: will be at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, August 1-4, 1996. The abstract deadline is April 30, 1996. For information contact: Colleen R. Schwoerke, Division of Continuing Education, CB 1020 Friday Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-1020 USA, (919) 962-6298, fax: (919) 962-2061, <smp96@cs.unc.edu>, <http://www.socsci.uci.edu/smp/>.
European Mathematical Psychology: will be at the Xanadu hotel in Padua, Italy, September 16-20, 1996. For information contact: Cristante Francesca; Dipartimento di Psicologia Generale; Via Venezia, 8; 35131 Padova ITALY.
Society for Medical Decision Making: will be at Westin Harbour Castle, Toronto, Canada, October 13-16, 1996. The abstract deadline is May 15, 1996. For information contact: Elizabeth Paine; Society for Medical Decision Making; The George Washington University; Office of CME; 2300 K Street, NW; Washington, DC 20037 USA; (202) 994-8929.
The Psychonomic Society: Chicago, IL, November 1-3, 1996.
Judgment/Decision Making Society: Chicago, IL, November 2- 4, 1996. The abstract deadline is July 5, 1996. See pages 6-7 of this newsletter for more information.
You can now pay your membership dues and order the journals Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes and the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making using the single form below. If you want to subscribe to either journal for 1996, just check the appropriate space(s) below. Do NOT send your journal fees, you will be billed for the amount by the publishers. Please DO send your Society membership dues.
For your dues status, please check your label. The date next to your name is the last year for which the database shows you as having paid dues.
If your label shows "1996" or later, you are fully paid.
THANK YOU!
If it is "1995" then you owe dues of $20 for 1996.
If it is "1994" or earlier then you owe back dues ($20 per
year) and $20 for 1996. Please act soon, or you
will be dropped from the mailing list.
Members residing outside the United States who incur expenses in getting checks written in U.S. funds have the privilege of paying in advance for multiple years. The label date should indicate if you have done this. Members residing in countries where getting checks written in U.S. funds is impractical or illegal may apply to the Society for a free membership. Such members will find a "*" next to their names on the label.
Name Phone
Address EMAIL
City State ZIP
1996 Dues: Member $20 Student $5*
Please make checks payable to the JUDGMENT/DECISION MAKING SOCIETY. Checks must be in US dollars and payable through a US bank. Mail the form and check to:
Irwin Levin
Department of Psychology
University of Iowa
Iowa City, IA 52242
*Students must have endorsement of a faculty member:
Faculty Signature: Date:
Printed Name: Institution:
I wish to subscribe to the following for 1996: [The journal will bill you later for the price of subscription at the special Society rates shown]
_____ Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
(12 issues, $144 US & Canada, $170 elsewhere)
_____ Journal of Behavioral Decision Making (4 issues, $75)
Making Better Decisions: Improving Clinical Reasoning Across the Helping Professions is a newsletter designed to enhance sound reasoning in a professional context. It is published 3-4 times per year by Brooks/Cole Publishing. The current cost is $12 per year. Some of the areas for which they solicit short essay contributions include: case examples, advice from outstanding reasoners, decision aids, common research errors, methods for teaching critical thinking, ethical issues in quality of care, and sightings of questionable claims. For more information, or to subscribe, contact one of the content editors:
Eileen Gambrill, Ph.D.
School of Social Welfare
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
(510) 642-4450
Leonard Gibbs, Ph.D.
Department of Social Work
University of Wisconsin, Eau Claire
Eau Claire, WI 54701 USA
(715) 836-3638
J/DM NEWSLETTER
Department of Information & Decision Sciences
Carlson School of Management
University of Minnesota
271 19th Avenue S.
Minneapolis, MN 55455