SOCIETY for JUDGMENT and DECISION MAKING Vol. XIV Number 6 December, 1995
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From the Editor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
On-Line Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1995 J/DM Meeting: Executive Board meeting minutes . . . . . . 4
1995 J/DM Meeting: Annual meeting minutes . . . . . . . . . . 5
Annual Report of the Federation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Treasurer's Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Bayesian Research Conference notice. . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
Book ads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
Meetings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
Dues and Journal Order Form. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15
SUBMISSION DEADLINE FOR THE NEXT J/DM NEWSLETTER: March 1, 1996
1996 EXECUTIVE BOARD
Barbara Mellers, President
Hal R. Arkes, President-Elect
Terry Connolly, Past President
Robyn M. Dawes, 1994-1996
Lola Lopes, 1995-1997
Elke Weber, 1996-1998
Irwin P. Levin, Secretary/Treasurer
J/DM NEWSLETTER
Editor:
Shawn P. Curley
Department of Info. & Decision Sciences
University of Minnesota
271 19th Avenue S.
Minneapolis, MN 55455
(612) 624-6546
FAX: (612) 626-1316
E-Mail: scurley@csom.umn.edu
Dues, Addresses & Corrections:
Irwin P. Levin
Department of Psychology
University of Iowa
Iowa City, IA 52242
(319) 335-2451
E-Mail: irwin-levin@uiowa.edu
The J/DM Newsletter welcomes submissions from individuals and groups. However, we do not publish substantive papers. Book reviews will be published. If you are interested in reviewing books and related materials, please write to the editor.
There are few ground rules for submissions. The best way to send your contribution is via EMAIL or in an ASCII file on a 3.5" or 5.25" diskette. If you must send hard-copy (e.g., if you are using special graphics or do not have computer access), please submit camera-ready copy. This means that the copy should be typed single-spaced on white 8« by 11 paper. If possible, use a carbon or film ribbon. Please mail flat -- do not fold.
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Subscriptions: Subscriptions are available on a calendar year basis only. Requests for information concerning membership in the Society for Judgment and Decision Making should be sent to Irwin Levin.
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ON LINE
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Alan Schwartz and Alan Cooke
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Federation News
The monthly newsletter of the Federation of Behavioral, Psychological and Cognitive Sciences is available electronically. Contact the Federation at:
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Minutes of Judgment and Decision Making Executive Board Meeting November 11, 1995, Westin Bonaventure Hotel, Los Angeles (compiled by Irwin Levin and Janet Sniezek)
Minutes of Judgment and Decision Making Society Business Meeting November 13, 1995, Westin Bonaventure Hotel, Los Angeles (compiled by Irwin Levin)
Federation Activities in 1995
Federation of Behavioral, Psychological and Cognitive Sciences
(submitted by David Johnson, Executive Director)
There has been one primary focus of Federation activities during 1995. We have worked, sometimes frantically, with a coalition of behavioral and social science organizations as well as with scientific organizations outside the behavioral and social sciences to see that funding for the research of our scientists is not curtailed by Congress. There have been very serious threats to that funding this year, and there are still many steps to go before the appropriations bills that will fund federal activities in fiscal year 1996 are finally enacted.
Our actions have taken five major forms in this area. We testified on the President's appropriation request before various appropriations subcommittees of the House and Senate. We organized a grass roots advocacy campaign on behalf of behavioral and social science research funding at NSF when the threat of total loss of that money was gravest. We have informed scientists by electronic mail updates as to the progress of the effort to maintain funding. We have worked with other groups to see that representatives of sciences outside the behavioral and social sciences are vocally and solidly behind the efforts to save behavioral and social science research money. And we have spent a good deal of time lobbying on Capitol Hill.
Whether we have been successful or not is too early to tell. The House has completed appropriation work for now and awaits the actions of the Senate. In the House, we risked losing the NSF Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences along with its funding as debate began. We were able, thanks to the grass roots campaign, to somewhat soften the worst effects. The Budget Committee made cuts to NSF sufficient to wipe out the behavioral and social sciences and made it clear that it expected the cuts to come from these sciences. But the Budget Committee sets overall spending figures. It can only suggest to the appropriations and authorizations committees how to reach the overall budget level. The Budget Committee also recommended huge cuts at the Department of Education, including a cut to research sufficient to eliminate most educational research. It also had recommended a 5% cut for NIH and frozen funding for the following six years. By the time Congress went home for the August recess, NSF had been cut by $200 million, but there was no instruction about taking that money from particular sciences. At the Department of Education, the core research program, which is contained in the Office of Educational Research and Improvement, had received a $20 million increase. But some $200 to $400 million (depending on how broadly R&D is defined) of research, demonstration, and information dissemination money outside OERI wa eliminated by the House. So the situation at Education is bleak in many ways despite preservation of the core research program. NIH went from a 5% cut to a 5% increase. Whether that situation can be maintained in the Senate is a very open question.
We have begun our Senate visits. We find that the Senate has no ideological axe to grind against the behavioral and social sciences. We expect our sciences at NSF to be treated more kindly in the Senate than they were in the House. Our hope is that when the house and Senate go to conference, the ideologically moderate views of the Senate will prevail. Unfortunately, we expect research at the Department of Education to be treated even worse in the Senate than in the House. The Senate wishes to restore money to service delivery programs in education. They will do that in part by leaving the research cuts made by the House in place and by taking away the $20 million increase for OERI research plus in all likelihood a bit more. NIH has some strong advocates in the Senate, and it is likely to fare pretty well. One problem is that the House eliminated a billion dollar Health and Human Services program to provide home energy assistance to the poor. The program is known as the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), and a number of Senators would like to see that money restored. To do so, however, money would have to be taken from other programs. NIH could be hit. While NIH has fared well so far, the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration has been hit pretty hard with its demonstration programs slated by the House to be gutted.
So many threats have come from the Congress that the Federation and its allied bodies in Washington including the American Psychological Association, the American Psychological Society, the American Educational Research Association, and the Consortium of Social Science Associations have been overwhelmed. Our combined staffs have not been enough to give each threat the focused attention it deserves.
The new Congress is truly new. Many old allies for our sciences on the Hill lost their jobs with the Republican takeover. There are literally thousands of new faces on the Hill. Most of them have little to no knowledge of the behavioral and social sciences. At the same time, there are organized groups such as the Church of Scientology and the Christian Coalition that are working actively to make Congress unfavorable toward our sciences. So the need for our long-running science seminar series on Capitol Hill is stronger than it has been at any time since the early Reagan administration when our sciences were last under siege. We chose our speakers this year in part to touch on themes that might be attractive to the Republican majority. We have had talks, for example, on the use of psychological research to improve detection of criminals, on effective methods for downsizing and reorganization, and on the effects of video violence on children's development. We have also had talks that we hope will provoke rational reasoning about controversial topics. For example, one of our speakers dealt with the persistent effects of discrimination despite desegregation efforts. And our next speaker, Cathy Watkins, an ABA member, will speak on educational interventions that have had dramatically positive effects on student performance. In November, our final speaker for this session of Congress will discuss research that shows that brain development is caused by experience. In the course of that talk, he will examine the perhaps permanent deficits in brain development that can occur in deprived environments.
The seminar series has been offered for 14 years. We had many years to educate what had been a rather stable coterie of senior Hill staffers. In a sense, the series must now begin that process of education again since many of those who had become knowledgeable about our sciences are no longer working on Capitol Hill. They have been replaced by people who are faced with making decisions vital to the health of our sciences, but without the knowledge base to make those decisions wisely.
The Forum on Research Management has met three times this year. In its first meeting, FORM examined the evolution of strategic planning for the behavioral and social sciences. It focused the first meeting on NSF, which had been mandated by Congress to undertake such planning. The thrust of the Congressional directive was toward having NSF engage more of its research funds in work of strategic importance to the nation. With the new Congress, Congressional intent may have shifted critically, requiring a rethinking on NSF's part as to what direction it should take for the future.
The second meeting of FORM was a continuation of the first. The long-awaited NIMH report on behavioral and social science research was on the verge of being published ("Basic Behavioral Science Research for Mental Health: A National Investment"). Many of those closely involved with putting the report together engaged in an in-depth discussion with FORM members about the nature of the report and about how to educate public policy makers as to what it contains, again given the constraints of the current political environment.
The third FORM meeting for 1995 was held on October 26-27. The meeting centered about the question of what should be the future of the Human Capital Initiative. Dan Newlon, who helped create the HCI at NSF spoke along with Norman Anderson, Director of the Office of Behavioral and Social Science Research, and Milt Hakel, Chair of the HCI steering committee. Participants agreed on the importance of the initiative not just as a tool for attracting research funding, but also as an organizational tool for psychological research. Participants wished to find a way to bring some momentum back to this effort to think strategically about psychological research. They recommended that an agenda item for the Federation Council meeting in December should be a consideration of whether a new standing committee for the Federation should be established to work with Milt Hakel, APA and APS as well as with the Consortium of Social Science Associations to keep the Human Capital Initiative strong.
The speed with which events have occurred in Washington this year has pointed up the need to respond instantly to crises. Until the first such threat this year--the threatened elimination of funding for all behavioral and social science research funding at NSF--we had relied on printed materials sent through the mail to inform and enlist the aid of our members. That wasn't good enough this time. As a result, we began to use email and fax. We found that information could be gotten around the country very quickly by relying on these forms of communication. We also found that people could be mobilized quickly using these same means. We had begun sending our newsletter electronically more than a year ago, but driven by events on Capitol Hill, we have also developed an electronic mailing list that we use for action alerts and urgent updates to our members. We have also developed an internet home page with multiple uses. The address for the home page is <http://www.apa.org/federation/>. In its current design, it will (1) inform readers about the Federation, (2) inform readers about our member societies and how to join those societies, (3) inform readers about our university affiliates and opportunities for graduate study in those departments, (4) provide ongoing information about legislative and regulatory activity in Washington that will have an impact on teaching and research, (5) provide emergency updates on legislation to which members need to react, and (6) provide ways to obtain monographs from the Capitol Hill Science Seminar Series.
We think that building this new element of infrastructure is important to do now because the challenges to research funding that we have been successful in helping to beat back this year are just the start of a long battle. Next year, the cuts proposed by the budget committee are even deeper than those for this year. For the foreseeable future, we will, unfortunately, not be fighting for increased support of research. We will be fighting simply for survival. To be successful in the coming struggle, the Federation will need the full support of all its members and affiliates.
Balance on January 1, 1995 $ 18,445
Expenses
Newsletters and Directory $ 8,053 Federation of Behavioral,
Psychological and Cognitive Sciences $ 4,370 1994 conference
(bills paid after Jan. 1) $ 1,009
1995 conference $14,703
Hourly help $ 1,505
Transfer of dues to European
Academy of Decision Making (EADM) $ 566
Mailings, Supplies, Telephone charges $ 285
TOTAL EXPENSES $ 30,491
Income
Dues $11,940
Conference registration $10,305
Royalties $ 4,221
Newsletter ads $ 628
Mailing labels $ 460
Interest $ 384
EADM dues $ 481
TOTAL INCOME $ 28,419
Balance on December 11, 1995 $ 16,373
MEMBERSHIP: 684 full members
203 student members
Irwin Levin
Secretary/Treasurer
12 December, 1995
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
UNIVERSITY PARK
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA 90089-0375
(213) 740-4252
FAX: (213) 740-8077
November 16, 1995
Memorandum to: Scientists and practitioners interested in Bayesian research, inference
by people, machines, or a blend, evaluation and decision making by
the same, decision support systems, expert systems for inference and/or
decision, and the like
From: Ward Edwards
Subject: 34th Annual Bayesian Research Conference
This is your invitation to come and participate in the 34th Annual Bayesian Research Conference. The dates this year are February 15 and 16, 1996. We will meet again this year at the Sportsmen's Lodge, at the intersection of Ventura Boulevard and Coldwater Canyon Boulevard in Studio City, California.
Our format and purpose will be the same this year as in recent previous years. We will give 30-minute papers to one another about research on inference, evaluation, decision processes and problems. We always strive for a blend of basic research and applications. A mixture of behavioral and normative interests has characterized us over the years. This means that decision analysts and behavioral decision theorists will be talking to one another. In recent years a number of members of the Normative AI Systems community have been attending. So, in addition to more familiar topics like utility, probability, cognitive illusions, and the like, we will also hear about influence diagrams, formal representations of uncertainty, utility theory as a basis for control, Normative Systems as competitors to expert systems, and similar topics. Our liaison with the Audit Research community is no longer functional, since they now meet at a different time of year. But we are as ecumenical about topics as about people; new topics that surprise me turn up each year.
As old hands know, the atmosphere is informal, the discussion can get intense, and many of the best debates take place during coffee breaks or in the hospitality suite at the end of the day. This Conference is a good place to try out your latest, wildest set of ideas on a kindly, knowledgeable, and critical audience. It is not a good place to make once again the speech for which you have received plaudits for the last two years. While some of our topics are technically demanding, the diversity of backgrounds of those attending calls for restraint in presenting mathematical materials; few of us are theorem-provers. (Some are, and indeed some papers prove theorems. But we need to be told why, and led gently by the hand through proofs.)
To get to the Sportsmen's Lodge, if you are driving, get to the Ventura Freeway, turn East from the San Diego Freeway or West from the Hollywood Freeway, exit at Coldwater Canyon Boulevard, drive South to Ventura Boulevard, and you are there; it is on the NE corner of that intersection.
Those not driving have various options. If you fly into Burbank Airport and have a reservation, simply phone the Sportsmen's Lodge and they will send a van to pick you up, if it is before 10 pm. If you fly into LAX, City Shuttle, Primetime or Super Shuttle will, for a price, take you from LAX to the Sportsmen's Lodge. Flyaway Bus Service will get you to Van Nuys, which is pretty close; from there you can take a cab.
The Conference will have a registration fee of $40 per person. There will be a hospitality room on Wednesday and Thursday nights. Those who choose to stay over Friday evening will find other colleagues who do the same; we usually have a good time. All who do are invited to join me at my house for post-Conference drinks and conversation, after which we all usually go out to dinner.
If you indicate on the registration form that you must talk or want to talk, you should assume that you are on the program. If you check "schedule me if time permits," bring your viewgraphs but don't be hurt if time doesn't permit. I will, as usual, rewrite the title of your talk in an effort to make it funny unless you save yourself from my often inept ministrations by making it funny in the first place.
Please let us know as soon as you can whether or not you can come. We need answers by January 26, in order that the Sportsmen's Lodge can know how many rooms to hold.
If I have missed someone who should have been invited, please photocopy this and pass it on, or call Letty Baz at (213) 740-4254, or email her at <baz@mizar.usc.edu>. If you need to reach me, my home phone number is (818) 985-4094, and my email address is <wedwards@mizar.usc.edu>. Now that I am emeritus, I no longer use my USC addresses. Please send the registration form back to Letty Baz at SSRI (the full address is on it); sending it to me would only enhance the probability of its getting lost, since I would have to pass it on to her.
I'll see you in the Hospitality Suite on Wednesday evening, February 14, at 6:00 pm or any time after that. Do come Wednesday evening. It's a good time to visit with old friends, meet new ones, and prepare yourself for the following day's stimulation.
Registration Form
Bayesian Research Conference
February 15 and 16, 1996
Name:__________________________
Affiliation:__________________________
Letty Baz
Social Science Research Institute
University of Southern California
Los Angeles, CA 90089-0375
Please note that once again in order to hold block reservations, the registration form must be returned no later than JANUARY 26. A total count of reserved rooms must be guaranteed to the hotel two weeks prior to the meeting. Your promptness will be greatly appreciated.
Registration fee is $40.00. Please return checks made payable to Ward Edwards along with
this form.
Receipts will be available at the conference.
*********************cut-and-paste here**********************
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Steven J. Brams; Alan D. Taylor
Fair Division: From Cake-Cutting to Dispute Resolution
55390-3 hardback about $54.95 55644-9 paperback about $18.95
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Theory of Moves
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National Conference on Higher Education: will be in Chicago, IL, March 17-20, 1996. For information contact: NCHE Conference Proposals, c/o Louis S. Albert Vice President, AAHE, One Dupont Circle Suite 360, Washington DC 20036-1110 USA, fax: (202) 293- 0073.
Public Choice Society/Economic Science Association meetings: will be at the Adam's Mark Hotel, Houston TX, April 12-14, 1996. For more information contact: Robert D. Tollison, President; Public Choice Society; Center for Study of Public Choice; 1D3 George's Hall; George Mason University; Fairfax, VA 22030 USA.
INFORMS: will be at the Washington Hilton and Towers, Washington, DC, May 5-8, 1996. For information contact: INFORMS Washington, 290 Westminster Street, Providence, RI 02903 USA, (401) 274-2525, (800) 343-0062, <np246001@brownvm.brown.edu>.
ABO Research Conference: will be at the Stardust Hotel, Las Vegas, NV, June 24-25, 1996. For information contact: E. Michael Bamber, J.M. Tull School of Accounting, Terry College of Business, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602-6252 USA, (706) 542-3601, fax: (706) 542-7196, <mbamber@uga.cc.uga.edu>.
Making Statistics more Effective in Schools of Business: will be at the University of Alaska Anchorage, June 27-29, 1996. For more information contact: University of Alaska Anchorage School of Business, 3211 Providence Dr., Anchorage, AK 99504 USA, (907) 786-4121, fax: (907) 786-4119.
American Psychological Society: will be at the San Francisco Hilton Hotel, San Francisco, CA, June 29-July 2, 1996. For information contact: Program Committee Chair Joseph Steinmetz, 812-855-3991, <steinmet@ucs.indiana.edu>.
Cognitive Science Society: will be at the University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, July 12-15, 1996. The abstract deadline is February 1, 1996. For information contact: Edwin Hutchins <hutchins@cogsci.ucsd.edu> or Walter Savitch <savitch@cogsci.ucsd.edu> or check <http://www.cse.ucsd.edu/events/cogsci96/>.
International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process: will be at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, Canada, July 13-15, 1996. For information contact: William C. Wedley, ISAHP IV Chairperson, Faculty of Business Administration, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby B.C., CANADA, V5A 1S6, (604) 291-4528, fax: (604) 291-4920, <wedley@sfu.ca>.
Society for Mathematical Psychology: will be at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, August 1-4, 1996. The abstract deadline is April 30, 1996. For more information contact: Colleen R. Schwoerke, Division of Continuing Education, CB 1020 Friday Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-1020 USA, (919) 962-6298, fax: (919) 962-2061, <smp96@cs.unc.edu>, <http://www.socsci.uci.edu/smp/>.
The Psychonomic Society: Chicago, IL, November 1-3, 1996.
Judgment/Decision Making Society: Chicago, IL, November 2-4, 1996.
You can now pay your membership dues and order the journals Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes and the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making using the single form below. If you want to subscribe to either journal for 1996, just check the appropriate space(s) below. Do NOT send your journal fees, you will be billed for the amount by the publishers. Please DO send your Society membership dues.
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Members residing outside the United States who incur expenses in getting checks written in U.S. funds have the privilege of paying in advance for multiple years. The label date should indicate if you have done this. Members residing in countries where getting checks written in U.S. funds is impractical or illegal may apply to the Society for a free membership. Such members will find a "*" next to their names on the label.
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Please make checks payable to the JUDGMENT/DECISION MAKING
SOCIETY.
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I wish to subscribe to the following for 1996: [The journal will bill you later for the price of subscription at the special Society rates shown]
_____ Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (12 issues, $144 US & Canada, $170 elsewhere)
_____ Journal of Behavioral Decision Making (4 issues, $75)